CMCC's Blog

01 Jul 2015

Silver, Please Keep Dropping!!!


I have been enjoying watching silver drop, and hating to see silver rise. The #1 place to check the melt value is at silverprice.org (no www!). In the 'All Data' Chart, the lowest recorded price is $3.55 and the highest is $49.45. Believe it or not, the record high was set over 30 years ago, on January 18, 1980. Silver skyrocketed in 1979, with prices opening at $6.00 and January 1980 opened at about $45.00. After the record was set, prices plummeted, with it dropping from $49.45 to $10.89 in four months.

So, what am I trying to get at? Why do I want silver to drop, when it will make the silver in my collection worth less? Well, you can get more for the same price.When silver was $49.45, a war nickel at melt price would cost $2.78, and a silver dollar would cost a whopping $38.25. Could you imagine paying $38.25 for a single Morgan Dollar? Ouch! I bet not very many people were completing their Morgan dollar sets at the time! In February 1993, when silver was hitting a record low of $3.55, you would pay a mere $54.91 for a complete roll of Morgan silver dollars. Could you imagine paying $54.91 for a roll of morgan dollars, and selling them for $751.48 18 years later? What if you bought 20 rolls and sold them?

What I am mainly trying to get at, It would cost $21.70 per dollar face value of silver coins when silver is at $30.00 per oz.
It would cost $14.47 per dollar face value of silver coins when silver is at $20.00 per oz.
It costs $11.24 per dollar face value of silver coins at the current $15.54
If silver went down to $12.00 per ounce (that isn't too unreasonable, is it?), it would cost $8.68 per dollar face value!

I began checking silver almost hourly on April 27, when silver went up for $15.63 to $16.39. I rejoiced in myself to see it go down and close for the weekend at $16.11, but then it went up to $17.71 in 11 business days! I then rejoiced to see it drop below $16.00 and it closed at $15.95 for four business days in a row!!! Silver now just hit a low of $15.43, which was only beaten once in over 5 years!!! Now we just have to watch it.

However, silver is very volatile. We put $2000 dollars in the S&P 500 in February. We went down to $1978, up to $2070, and then down to $2040, and then we suffered our worst day yet, with it plummeting 2.09% on Monday, June 29. I you do the math, we went down from $2040 to $1998 in one day!!! For silver, this is light. The biggest drop and rise in the past year were on two consecutive business days, when it dropped from $16.55 to $15.49, and then back up again to $16.65, the two days gained -6.40% and 7.49% respectively. Also, another big drop was when silver was $18.07, and it dropped -$1.31, or -7.25%, to $16.76 in one day. Silver is volatile.

Past year of silver:
High: $21.46
Low: $15.34
Increase/Decrease: -$5.46
Increase/Decrease: -25.97%
All Time High: $49.45
30-Year Low: $3.55

Here is some information that I charted down on Microsoft Excel:

6/18/2015 Open Close High Low Gain/Loss $ Gain/Loss %
Past 30 Days $17.71 $15.96 $17.71 $15.82 ($1.77) -10.00%
Past 60 Days $16.22 $15.96 $17.71 $15.63 ($0.28) -1.73%
6 Months $15.91 $15.96 $18.35 $15.34 $0.05 0.31%
1 Year $19.73 $15.96 $21.46 $15.34 ($3.79) -19.22%
2 Years $21.68 $15.96 $24.65 $15.34 ($5.82) -26.74%
5 Years $18.81 $15.96 $48.58 $15.34 ($2.83) -15.06%
10 Years $7.22 $15.96 $48.58 $6.70 $8.58 116.57%
15 Years $5.02 $15.96 $48.58 $4.07 $10.90 216.27%
20 Years $5.33 $15.96 $48.58 $4.07 $10.51 193.42%
30 Years $6.13 $15.96 $48.58 $3.55 $9.73 156.68%
All Data $4.22 $15.96 $49.45 $3.55 $11.79 283.82%

The information is about two weeks old, and hopefully is not confusing. Figures in parenthesis mean negative amounts.

I hope you find the blog enjoyable, as I worked non-stop for over an hour. Please leave any comments below; criticism welcome!



Level 4

Well, I like silver as a PM, & also in coinage - If you own it as a PM, then this can be painful to watch it gyrate, especially, in the downward path - Though it does offer the opportunity to, "not be sore & buy more" as the brokers & deals say - I agree with 7180, dollar cost average is a great way to continue stacking - Like Mike says, it is all based on the banking system, So, When the banking system finally breaks & I believe it eventually will, especially with the debts & deficits we "manage" in this country - The shift will be GLORIOUS !!! - In the meantime, collectible silver is always great & you will get the additional benefit of the PM !!! - Great Blog CMCC ! Thanks


Level 7

It's all based on the banking system. They don't want silver high. Watch the market when other countries have faith in the dollar silver drops. If the market goes up silver goes down. It's that simple.


Level 5

Well, now the most volatile day, the S&P went down 4%, and FitBit, a stock I invested in, dropped 18% on one day recently!


Level 5

Keep studying the silver market. Most people get board and stop when it doesn't go where they want it too(usually up!). Went you have looked at it daily for 3 to 5 years through up and down cycle you truly begin to understand it.


Level 5

I have already gone through the headache twice: $15.60 up to $18.12, and $15.34 up to $17.78. I also have seen $21.21 down to $15.60, and $17.78 down to $15.55. Independence Day Weekend has closed at $15.69. Study the History!!!



Level 4

Nice compendium of Silver. If JP Morgan weren't selling it short every time it rallies, we might see another 40 or 50 an ounce. It seems to rally at least a buck or two a day until they drive-by the stuff.


Level 5

As the price you pay for silver bullion or silver based common coins goes down it can be called Dollar Cost Averaging. Which means for instance that if you bought 10 ounces at $40 per ounce (your really under water now), then bought 10 ounces at $20 per ounce your average cost to break even on 20 ounces is now $30 per ounce (still under water but feeling hopeful). Lots of people say you are nuts to buy when it is going down in price, but it depends upon what your goals and expectations are.


Level 6

Wow great blog!!! Thanks for all your info! : )

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